2018 KGRI Working Papers

Working papers at the Keio University Global Research Institute (KGRI) are made available on the KGRI website by its researchers and participants in its research projects before their research results are officially announced in academic journals or books, etc., for use and discussion by researchers both inside and out of KGRI. Various versions of papers are made available before and during the peer review process.
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Demographic Power: Tiny Titans, Crumbling Giants, and the Missing Link Between Population & Power

No.6 Jonathan Webb


Global fertility decline has led to population aging in all of the world's major powers. Japan, at the forefront of population aging, has already seen its population begin to fall, while South Korea, China, Taiwan, and Singapore face the prospect of an even more rapid aging process in the coming decades. Aging populations and population decline will undoubtedly present many of the foremost national security challenges of the 21st century. The existing international relations literature, however, is ill equipped to analyze the impact of demographic change on the international system. This paper introduces a framework called Demographic Power Construction, to address this deficit, and bring demography back into the forefront of security studies. Two historical case studies are followed by an analysis of the situation in Northeast Asia, a brief set of policy recommendations, and concluding remarks.
1. Political Demography 2. International Relations 3. National Security 4. Asia 5. Japan 6. United States 7. Population Aging


Gray Zone Situations in Japan: Focusing on Differences in Understanding between the Ministry of Defense and the Japan Coast Guard

No.5  Masahiro Kihara


The aim of this research is to theoretically clarify the essence of the "Gray-zone situations." The focus of the thesis is to explore the difference in recognition between the Ministry of Defense and the Japan Coast Guard (JCG) in the Gray-zone situations. By analyzing the formulation process of the "National Defense Program Guidelines for FY 2011 and beyond" and the parliamentary debates at the National Diet, this paper clarifies the deepening process of the recognition towards the gray-zone situations by the Ministry of Defense and JCG. At the same time, the thesis refers the perspectives of the US military towards the gray-zone situations with growing demands to collaborate with the Japan Self Defense Force (JSDF) under the Japan-US Security Treaty in case of emergency. In addition to recognizing of the gray-zone situations in the United States, by comparing the concepts of Russia's "hybrid warfare" and China's "salami slicing tactics" with the recognition of the gray-zone situations in Japan, this paper redefines the Japanese version of "Gray-zone situations." The examination of the gray-zone situations in Japan is based on dealing with the JSDF. However, the "Gray-zone situations" is not a war. The dispatch of the JSDF has the danger of giving the opponent the excuse that Japan has raised escalation. In the gray-zone situations, various means and tactics are exercised in combination. In Japan, a whole of government approach that requires collaboration among ministries and agencies is very weak. The latest National Defense Program Guidelines also points out the possibility that the gray-zone situations will further increase and expand in the future. In the gray-zone situations, the Ministry of Defense and the JCG must share the recognition that it is necessary for law enforcement agencies to deal with it. The National Security Council in Japan should establish a strategy and consider cross-domain response.
1. Gray-zone 2. Ministry of Defense / Japan Self Defense Force 3. Japan Coast Guard 4. Hybrid warfare 5. Cross Domain


The Information Technology Industry in North Korea

No.4 Koichiro Komiyama


There are more than 45 countries that are suspected to have offensive cyber capabilities. North Korea is one of those. WannaCry, ransomware spread all over the world in 2017, was reportedly prepared by group affiliated with North Korean government. This study reviewed the history of North Korean Information and Communications Technology development from 1980s. During Kim Jong-Il's administration, they tried to stretch nation-wide network, to create a semiconductor industry, to expand software development business even in the neighbor countries. In addition, many highly skilled workers were trained. As a result, there was a surplus of engineers. The argument made in this paper is that this surplus of highly-trained engineers may have caused increases in cyberattacks and other activities that led to increasing instability in the region.


Between Internationalism and Isolationism: McGovernism in the U.S. Foreign Policy Tradition

No.3 Mayuko Chashiro


A new form of American Isolationism emerged during the Obama Administration as its foreign policy was characterized by its prudent attitudes and its practice of not taking unnecessary steps. Since President Donald Trump took office in January 2017 and implemented his "America First" strategy, it has become very apparent that a different kind of American foreign policy is now in operation. The current restructured American Isolationism can best be explained as the self-imposed creation of distance from international engagement which prioritizes government interests toward domestic rather than foreign affairs. This paper argues that the tendency toward isolationism has been a continuous process from the Obama to the Trump administration. This paper also analyzes the roots of the Obama isolationism: Democrats who have supported isolationism since the Vietnam War, particularly in opposition to military intervention. While both types of isolationism seek to minimize foreign involvement, the Obama style of isolation had different goals that distinguished its world view from Trump's "America First" isolationism. The research presented in this paper approaches the question through the prism of the 1972 Presidential election. In that year, an active political faction and sloganeering within the Democratic Party resulted in the nomination of George McGovern as a presidential candidate. This paper provides a description of the ideological base of McGovernism: a new form of American isolationism which has survived within the Democratic Party since the Vietnam War. This paper shows McGovernism to be one of the foreign policy trends in contemporary politics. There are resemblances between the coalition that won in 2008 and the coalition that lost in 1972. Because of this, the importance of McGovernite politics should increase.


The U.S. Military Bases in Okinawa and Japan-U.S. Security Arrangements, 1945-1951

No.2 Yoko Ikemiyagi


During the occupation of Japan after the end of World War II, the relationship between Japan and the United States changed dramatically. For the first few years, the U.S. government, especially the military, planned to deprive Japan of territorial sovereignty over Okinawa. However, this situation changed due to the outbreak of the Korean War in 1950. In concluding the San Francisco Peace Treaty in 1951, the U.S. government allowed Japan only "residual sovereignty" over Okinawa.
Previous studies have attributed this U.S. government decision to the strategic importance of the U.S. military bases in Okinawa and state that this was why Okinawa was out of the scope of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty signed in 1951. However, there was a possibility that Okinawa would be included in the scope of the new Security Treaty in the future, since Japan had been given residual sovereignty over Okinawa. In this paper, I examine how the policies of the Japanese and U.S. governments concerning Okinawa were related to their vision of the security treaty. This paper argues that there was the possibility that re-armament of Japan could lead to the return of Okinawa to Japan and reduce the number of U.S. military bases in Okinawa..


Evolution of Traceability and Sharing Economies

No.1 Jiro Kokuryo


An analysis is offered on the relationship between traceability and sharing economy. Here, sharing economy is synonymous with "expansion of the right of use licensing (as opposed to ownership transfer) business model." Traceability is defined as "a state where the principle owner of property rights or product liability for some physical or intellectual property is able to continuously confirm the state of the property and who is using it." Under low traceability environments, businesses have no choice but to use the ownership sales-oriented business model. However, if advances in ICT realize high traceability environments, they will be able to adopt a model in which products are not sold and transferred, but in which only use rights are granted for a specified time in various form including rentals. Impact of barcodes and mobiles devices are analyzed to illustrate how traceability increased the level of sharing in supply chains.